Severe Weather Possible Thursday
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL LIKELY IN STRONGEST STORMS; "CONDITIONAL" RISK OF A TORNADO
Clouds have increased throughout the day for your Wednesday, with a couple of light showers breaking out around the dinner hour. We’ll see those around through the evening before more in the way of steady light to moderate rain sets in. A rumble of thunder or two is not out of the question, but severe weather is not expected overnight.
By morning, an area of thunderstorms will approach the area. While dynamics aloft will be strong, the best instability will remain far to the south and west. While damaging winds and hail are possible with these storms, the lack of instability will preclude the chance of a tornado. Late in the morning, however, as the instability approaches the area, some of the southernmost storms may ingest enough unstable air for a non-zero risk of a brief tornado before the complex exits to the east.
A lull in the shower and storm activity is expected in the early afternoon before a more questionable threat arrives. Individual discrete storms may fire after the morning storms exit the area, but it will be dependent on if the atmosphere can “recharge” itself instability-wise. All modes of severe weather will be on the table, in particular the large hail threat with any individual supercell storm. The tornado risk with these storms is very nebulous right now. Current forecasts have the best directional shear pulling away from the area before the best instability sets in, but a minor difference in wind direction at the surface could result in a risk of tornadoes with the afternoon storms. If the shear is present and the storms are able to tap into moderate to strong amounts of instability, a stronger tornado cannot be ruled out, but that chance currently looks very low.
Clearing skies on Thursday night will give way to a beautiful Friday throughout the area before another chance of storms on Saturday. While a couple of storms Saturday may be strong, widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated. We’ll tackle that threat after the storms tomorrow move on out.
-Meteorologist Dana Barker